Stocks to Avoid

All I have ever posted on here is BUY BUY BUY.  It's true, I am pretty bullish right now.  Not that I believe that we're necessarily going to have a huge rally any day now, but because I believe at these levels there is so much that is cheap.  And by cheap I mean like we'll never see so many bargains like this for many many years, so it's just a great opportunity.  Buying at this level, most everything will go up substantially once the market recovers... but I'm after things that will go up MORE than the market, won't go under, and ideally will pay me dividends while I wait.

BUT... there are certainly companies and sectors to avoid.

1. Department Stores, Apparel, and Specialty Stores.  As a whole, I think it is a bad play to buy any consumer facing stores.  People are pretty averse to shopping lately and while eventually they will shop again who knows what companies will be around long enough to see that day.  There are some exceptions.  I think a strong buy argument could be made for Best Buy (BBUY) and certain other brands like Limited (LTD, which owns Victoria Secret and Bed Bath and Beyond) and Macys (M) if they get cheap enough. But as a whole avoid the sector like the plague... that includes Abercrombie, Buckle, Dillards, Borders, etc.  There are bound to be winners, but will be far more losers.

2.  Financials.  I bought into a finacial mutual fund back in April 2008 thinking I was being contrarian.  I wasn't.  I was being stupid.  Based on what we knew at the time it wasn't a bad decision, but things were far worse than any of us knew.  Obviouslly, people will still need the financial industry again.  But the s*** is still hitting the fan with mortgages and who knows how many more write downs will take down more banks.  I'm not taking any chances in owning them, no matter how cheap Bank of America or Sun-Trust look.  The alluring dividends are anything but safe in this sector.

3.  Airlines.  This industry has some serious problems.  Hardly anyone has seemed to figure out how to run an efficient company.  I will say they are doing one good thing and that is cutting down on the number of flights, which has meant I've been on full flights latey rather than half empty ones like a year ago.  But many hedged their bets on fuel and locked in HIGHER prices.  People aren't flying as much, particularly regionally if they can drive to their family vacation in a day and save $1000 in airfare.  And the fees for checking a bag, headsets, food, horrible horrible.

4. Casinos.  They kept building them bigger and bigger and thought the bigger they built it the numbers would keep increasing to sustain it.  Wrong.  They're all just in loads of debt.  MGM Grand, Las Vegas Sands, Wynn... avoid!  They say sin stocks are always safe because people will keep sinning... wrong.  Casino gambling is down and out.

5. Print Media.  Failure to evolve means failure to survive.  Most of these companies are breathing their last breaths.  They aren't cheap.  They're slowly heading toward zero.

What about you???  What sectors do you think are a big AVOID???  Say so in the comments.

P.S. - I have started the tradition of divulging when I buy individual stocks.  I couldn't help myself and added to my largest position (Microsoft, MSFT) this morning.  $16.75?!?!  Are you freaking kidding me?  I couldn't help it.  Also GE reported this morning, mostly in line with expectations and still says it will keep its dividend.... thank you very much for the reaffirmed 9% yield!

Comments

  1. quit spending my money :)
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